Inflation coefficient for the year Rosstat. Inflation in Russia: what you need to know? Inflation rate in Russia
Inflation is the process of increasing prices for services and goods. It occurs due to the rapid increase in the number of paper money in the country. As a result, the national currency depreciates and the standard of living decreases. What are the inflation statistics according to Rosstat now and what changes will be in subsequent years according to official sources - more on that later in the material.
What is inflation?
Inflation— steady increase in prices for services and goods.
The process of increasing price value is the result of the activities of the state apparatus and its solution of economic and social issues. If the adopted laws in the future bring positive trends for the development of the country’s economy, then the growth of inflation will decrease and replace it deflation- the process of lowering the price level and increasing purchasing power.
There are three types of inflation:
- Creeping or moderate, in which price increases increase gradually. About 3-5% per year. This economic indicator is fixed in developed countries. Moderate inflation is a favorable factor for the economic situation, as demand increases, opportunities for investment and expansion of production open up;
- Galloping or "Latin" typical for developing countries. Its indicators are: 10-50% price growth per year;
- The critical period for the state comes when the indicators exceed 50%. This is how it is formed hyperinflation. It leads to the development of wars and interstate conflicts. Hyperinflation rates can reach a critical level of 200%.
Inflation in Russia has been calculated on the basis of the Consumer Price Index for goods and services, taking into account graphs and tables only since 1991.
During the Soviet era, the process of money depreciation was not officially calculated. The indicators of price reduction and consumer level are monitored by experts from the Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat.
Rosstat collects and processes information on the price of goods and services in all regions of the country. The Federal State Statistics Service compares the collected data with indicators for the previous month and year, drawing up a graph or diagram as a percentage.
Inflation rate in Russia in 2017
To determine the inflation rate in 2017, you need to use official expert data, which is presented in the form of graphs, diagrams or tables. It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2017, according to official data from Rosstat, price growth in Russia amounted to 1.86%. Annualized - 3.33%. The graph of price increases for goods and services for each month of 2017 currently includes the following data:
The compiled table of money depreciation for 2017, expressed as a percentage relative to the previous period, is calculated for one calendar month from the first to the last day. The table is compiled according to official data from Rosstat experts based on the CPI.
The inflation index in Russia in 2017 took 13th position according to world statistics.
According to Rosstat experts, IMF experts and World Bank specialists, by the end of this year inflation will consolidate at around 4%, and the country’s economy will enter a phase of full growth. Consumer and investment demand will grow briskly.
Data for 2018
The planned inflation for 2018 in Russia, according to official data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, was reduced to 4%. The assumptions were based on the “basic” price growth pattern for 2018, which was compiled on the basis of the average price of Urals oil and the average annual value of the US currency. However, not everyone agreed with this conclusion, as prices for goods and services rose by up to 12%.
Forecast for 2019
According to the latest statements by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, inflation may reach 5.5% in 2019.
The reason will be a slowdown in GDP growth due to an increase in VAT. The first quarter will be the most difficult; then the inflation rate is planned to stabilize.
Official data from Rosstat by year
The dynamics of inflation in Russia helps to assess the real economic state of the state at the current moment and in subsequent years. Below are the annual inflation data in Russia from 1991 to 2017 (for convenience, the information is presented in the table)
| 1991 |
160,4% |
| 1992 |
258,8% |
| 1993 |
840,0% |
| 1994 |
214,8% |
| 1995 |
131,6% |
| 1996 |
21,8% |
| 1997 |
11,0% |
| 1998 |
84,5% |
| 1999 |
36,6% |
| 2000 |
20,1% |
| 2001 |
18,8% |
| 2002 |
15,06% |
| 2003 |
11,99% |
| 2004 |
11,74% |
| 2005 |
10,91 |
| 2006 |
9,00% |
| 2007 |
11,87% |
| 2008 |
13,28% |
| 2009 |
8,80% |
Inflation in Russia
Annual inflation in Russia at the end of 2018 was 4.3%, with the key rate at the end of the year at 7.75%. It should be noted that inflation in Russia increased by 1.7 times compared to 2017, although it remains quite low in the entire history of the country.
The inflation target for the end of 2019 and 2020 was adjusted by the Bank of Russia at the meeting of the Board of Directors on June 14, 2019, which was made based on an analysis of the market situation, namely:
Annual inflation continues to slow down. In May, inflation expectations of the population and price expectations of enterprises did not change significantly, remaining at an elevated level. Economic growth in the first half of 2019 is below the expectations of the Bank of Russia. Compared to March, short-term pro-inflationary risks have decreased. In these conditions, taking into account the current monetary policy, the Bank of Russia lowered the annual inflation forecast for 2019 from 4.7–5.2 to 4.2–4.7%. In the future, according to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, annual inflation will be close to 4%.
The initial statement regarding the inflation forecast for 2018 - 2020 was made by the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, following the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 14, 2018:
...inflationary risks from external conditions have materialized. As a result, the inflation forecast has been raised even taking into account the decisions taken today. We expect inflation in the range of 3.8–4.2% at the end of 2018, 5–5.5% at the end of 2019, with a return to 4% in 2020.
At a press conference that took place following a meeting of the Board of Directors back on September 15, 2017, Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said she clarified the description of the inflation target:
Inflation has reached 4% and we would like to further clarify the description of the target.
Our target is inflation at or near 4%. Why "close"? Because it can fluctuate up and down around 4%.
Previously, we talked about the horizon for achieving a goal, that is, we determined a point, set a specific period (for example, the end of 2017) when we reach the target value. Now we have this the goal becomes permanent.
The tables below show annual inflation data in Russia for the period from 1991 to 2018. In addition, annual (monthly) inflation data for the current year 2019 will be provided.
For greater clarity, in addition to the inflation rate, the comparative table also includes the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia and the key rate in effect at the end of the corresponding year.
The dynamics of the inflation rate in Russia for 1991 - 2018 looks like this:
| Years | Annual inflation in Russia* | Refinancing rate, at the end of the year** (%) | Key rate at the end of the year (%)** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4,3 | - | 7,75 |
| 2017 | 2,5 | - | 7,75 |
| 2016 | 5,4 | - | 10,00 |
| 2015 | 12,90 | 8,25 | 11,0 |
| 2014 | 11,36 | 8,25 | 17,0 |
| 2013 | 6,45 | 8,25 | 5,50 |
| 2012 | 6,58 | 8,25 | - |
| 2011 | 6,10 | 8,00 | - |
| 2010 | 8,78 | 7,75 | - |
| 2009 | 8,80 | 8,75 | - |
| 2008 | 13,28 | 13,0 | - |
| 2007 | 11,87 | 10,0 | - |
| 2006 | 9,00 | 11,0 | - |
| 2005 | 10,91 | 12,0 | - |
| 2004 | 11,74 | 13,0 | - |
| 2003 | 11,99 | 16,0 | |
| 2002 | 15,06 | 21,0 | - |
| 2001 | 18,8 | 25,0 | - |
| 2000 | 20,1 | 25,0 | - |
| 1999 | 36,6 | 55,0 | - |
| 1998 | 84,5 | 60,0 | - |
| 1997 | 11,0 | 28,0 | - |
| 1996 | 21,8 | 48,0 | - |
| 1995 | 131,6 | 160 | - |
| 1994 | 214,8 | 180 | - |
| 1993 | 840,0 | 210 | - |
| 1992 | 2508,8 | 80,0 | - |
| 1991 | 160,4 | 25,0 | - |
* Inflation is calculated based on consumer price indices published by the Federal State Statistics Service.
** On December 11, 2015, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia established that starting from January 1, 2016:
- the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia determined on the corresponding date and its independent value is not established in the future. The change in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
- from January 1, 2016, the Government of the Russian Federation will use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate
According to the Statorgans and the Bank of Russia, inflation in annual terms for January-August 2019 looks like this:
*Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, %
**Dynamics of consumer prices by groups of goods and services (month to previous month, %)
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, which was announced at the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on July 26, 2019, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will return to 4% at the beginning of 2020.
According to Rosstat:
In August 2019, compared to July 2019, the consumer price index was 99.8%, compared to December 2018 - 102.4% (in August 2018 - 100.0%, compared to December 2017 g. – 102.4%).
In August, in 63 constituent entities of the Russian Federation (except for the autonomous okrugs that are part of the region), consumer goods and services fell in price by 0.1-0.8%. To the greatest extent, in the Tver region - by 0.8%, the Chuvash Republic and the Tula region - by 0.7%. The main reason is the decline in food prices.
In 9 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, an increase in prices for goods and services was observed in August. The most noticeable in the Khabarovsk Territory - 0.4%, due to an increase in tariffs for services by 0.6%.
In Moscow, prices decreased over the month by 0.2%, in St. Petersburg - by 0.6% (from the beginning of the year - prices increased by 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively).
The seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables had a significant impact on the dynamics of prices for food products in August. Prices for tomatoes decreased by 24.9%, potatoes - by 22.4%, carrots - by 22.2%, onions - by 20.7%, beets - by 16.7%, grapes - by 16.0% , cucumbers – by 12.1%. At the same time, the increase in prices for oranges amounted to 2.8%, for garlic – 1.8%.
Prices for vegetables and fruits have decreased in most regions of the Russian Federation. In 45 regions by 10.0% or more. In particular, in the Tula region - by 17.7%, Vladimir, Kaliningrad and Yaroslavl regions - by 16.0-16.5%.
The tables provide data on inflation and the key rate taken from the websites of the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service.
Inflation is a socio-economic phenomenon that shows whether there is an imbalance in the market for goods, services and capital.
Measuring this indicator and its regulation contributes to the effective management of the economic situation in the country.
The inflation rate is one of the main macroeconomic indicators characterizing the state of the country's economy. This level can be adjusted both by the economic situation in the country and by the administrative apparatus.
What is inflation?
Inflation is the process of depreciation of the money supply, which contributes to an increase in prices for consumer goods and services.
Rising inflation means that for the same amount of money you can buy different quantities of goods in different periods of time. Inflation in Russia is determined by such an indicator as the consumer price index for goods and services. This indicator characterizes the change in the price level over a certain time.
There is no clear opinion on how to fight the inflation process and whether it is worth fighting. Some experts believe that in order to maintain macroeconomic stability in the country, it is necessary to constantly regulate this process. Others, on the contrary, pointing to the fact that the root cause of inflation is the imbalance of aggregate demand and supply, believe that government intervention in these processes leads to an increase in the rate of price growth.
The reasons for the growth of the consumer price index can be varied:
- Internal:
- Growth in consumer demand, without increasing supply;
- Growth of money supply in the country;
- Acceleration of money supply turnover.
- External:
- Negative foreign trade balance;
- Increase in the country's external debt;
- Increase in prices for imported goods, decrease in prices for exported ones.
Inflation rate in Russia
The Ministry of Economic Development has predicted the inflation index in Russia for the next 3 years. Taking into account the country's economic recovery from the crisis, by the end of 2016 the level of consumer prices for the next year was predicted at 106.5%. This forecast has been adjusted several times due to the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country.
According to Rosstat, as of October 2017, the inflation rate is significantly lower than predicted. In some months, deflation in prices for goods and services could be observed. By month, the consumer price index in 2017 remained at the following level:
- January – 100.6%;
- February – 100.2%;
- March – 100.1%;
- April – 100.3%;
- May – 100.4%;
- June – 100.6%;
- July – 100.1%;
- August – 99.5%;
- September – 99.9%;
- October – 100.2%.
Thus, by December 2017, the inflation rate was 1.9%.
Inflation forecast
The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia annually develops and adjusts existing programs for the country's socio-economic development, dividing them into short-term (1 year) and long-term (2-5 years) periods. In accordance with these programs, a forecast of the main macro and microeconomic indicators of Russia's economic development, including the consumer price index, is created.
According to the socio-economic development program, consumer inflation in 2018 will increase to the target level of 4%. This growth will be caused by an increase in consumer demand due to an increase in real incomes of the population. As a result, in 2018, the growth in prices for goods will increase to 4.4%; for services, the growth in prices will remain at 5%.
Inflation in Russia by year
For the period from 1991 to 2017. The Russian economy has experienced enormous shocks and long periods of recovery. The consumer price index is one of the indicators, by analyzing which one can assess exactly when the country was experiencing an economic crisis and when it was on the path to stabilizing development. The dynamics of inflation in Russia are clearly demonstrated in the table, from which you can build a graph of price changes.
| Reporting year | Inflation rate, % |
| 1991 | 160,4 |
| 1992 | 2508,8 |
| 1993 | 839,9 |
| 1994 | 215,1 |
| 1995 | 131,3 |
| 1996 | 21,8 |
| 1997 | 11 |
| 1998 | 84,4 |
| 1999 | 36,5 |
| 2000 | 20,2 |
| 2001 | 18,6 |
| 2002 | 15,1 |
| 2003 | 12 |
| 2004 | 11,7 |
| 2005 | 10,9 |
| 2006 | 9 |
| 2007 | 11,9 |
| 2008 | 13,3 |
| 2009 | 8,8 |
| 2010 | 8,8 |
| 2011 | 6,1 |
| 2012 | 6,6 |
| 2013 | 6,5 |
| 2014 | 11,4 |
| 2015 | 12,9 |
| 2016 | 5,4 |
| 2017 | 1,91 |
According to Rosstat, 2018 exceeded the previous year with a record low inflation rate in the entire history of the Russian Federation (2.5%) by almost 2 times. 4.3% with the Central Bank’s key interest rate of 7.75% - these are the results of the year.
However, inflation processes in Russia are characterized by extreme instability, which is very typical for countries of the 3rd world. So, if we look at this economic indicator over the past 27 years, we can see that during the crisis years it had double-digit figures.
We remind you that inflation is calculated based on consumer price indices published by the Federal State Statistics Service.
Dynamics of the inflation rate in the Russian Federation for 1991-2018
| Years | Annual inflation in Russia |
| 2018 | 4,3 |
| 2017 | 2,5 |
| 2016 | 5,4 |
| 2015 | 12,9 |
| 2014 | 11,36 |
| 2013 | 6,45 |
| 2012 | 6,58 |
| 2011 | 6,1 |
| 2010 | 8,78 |
| 2009 | 8,8 |
| 2008 | 13,28 |
| 2007 | 11,87 |
| 2006 | 9,0 |
| 2005 | 10,91 |
| 2004 | 11,74 |
| 2003 | 11,99 |
| 2002 | 15,06 |
| 2001 | 18,8 |
| 2000 | 20,1 |
| 1999 | 36,6 |
| 1998 | 84,5 |
| 1997 | 11,0 |
| 1996 | 21,8 |
| 1995 | 131,6 |
| 1994 | 214,8 |
| 1993 | 840 |
| 1992 | 2508,8 |
| 1991 | 160,4 |
Inflation (from Latin inflatio - inflation) is the depreciation of money, manifested in the form of an increase in prices for goods and services, not due to an increase in their quality.
Due to inflation, the same amount of money can buy fewer goods and services over time. In practice, this translates into increased prices.
In this article:
Inflation in Russia since 2000 (final figure)
| Year | Meaning |
|
8.8% (forecast 7.5%) |
|
|
6.1% (forecast 7%) |
|
|
6.6% (forecast 7%) |
|
|
6.5% (forecast 5-6%) |
|
|
11.4% (forecast 5.5-6%) |
|
|
12.9% (forecast 8%) |
|
The World Bank has released a report on the prospects for the Russian economy. Thus, according to the organization’s forecasts, inflation in the Russian Federation by the end of 2012 will be about 6.5-7%, and in 2013 it may be slightly higher than the Bank of Russia target, which is 5-6%. At the end of March 2012 The World Bank predicted that inflation in the Russian Federation by the end of 2012. will be about 6%.
Below you will see graphs of inflation growth during 2008 - 2011. If in the first half of 2009 inflation grew steadily, then in the second half the growth almost completely stopped, while the inflation curve for 2008 went up. Thus, inflation in Russia set a new record - in 2009 it became the lowest since 1991. And last year in 2010, the consumer price index, having increased by as much as 1.2% in December, turned out to be exactly the same as in 2009 (see graph below).
Inflation forecast for 2013 from the Ministry of Economic DevelopmentThe Ministry of Economic Development sees risks that inflation in Russia in 2013 may be higher than that included in the official forecast - 5-6%, Deputy Head of the Ministry Andrei Klepach said on Tuesday at parliamentary hearings in the Federation Council. “Inflation may turn out to be higher, but for now we expect that taking into account a conservative monetary policy, taking into account the fact that the state has tools to influence the food market, namely grain interventions, we are obliged to keep the situation under control,” Klepach said. He emphasized that the risks of inflation increasing above the level specified in the forecast are primarily related to the situation on world food markets, namely rising food prices. At the same time, Klepach noted that the Ministry of Economic Development still expects that the trend towards slowing inflation in Russia will continue in the medium term. |
How is official inflation calculated?
The minimum set of goods and services needed by a person in order not to die of hunger is taken. These are socially significant products: bread, milk, cereals, butter, clothing, shoes, etc. They track prices for these goods and look at how much a particular product has risen in price. They calculate the change in prices for each product included in the minimum set (for example, for a year), then take the average value. This is the inflation rate - a certain average increase in the prices of goods included in the minimum set.
To better understand how inflation works, let's look at an example.
You have 100 rubles and you used all the money to buy mineral water worth 20 rubles per bottle. So you bought 5 bottles.
Let’s say that inflation in the country is 10% per annum and in a year the same bottle of mineral water will cost 22 rubles. Therefore, in a year, for 100 rubles you will buy 4.54 bottles, that is, not 5, but 4 bottles.
In another year, with inflation of 10%, mineral water will cost 24.2 rubles. For 100 rubles you can buy 4.13 bottles.
In 5 years, mineral water will cost 32.21 rubles (with inflation of 10%) and for 100 rubles you can buy 3.1 bottles.
In 10 years, mineral water will cost 51.87 rubles (with inflation of 10%) and for 100 rubles you can buy only 1.93 bottles...
Let’s imagine that inflation has remained stable at 10% per annum for many years. Then, for example, after 50 years a bottle of mineral water will cost 2,348 rubles (!)
Money loses its main value due to inflation - purchasing power. That is, inflation is slowly eating up our money. It follows from this that it is unwise to keep your own savings at home or in another place where they do not work. Inflation will bite off small pieces of your capital at first, and over time the total size of the pieces bitten off will become substantial.
Let's see what inflation will do to our savings over 10 years if they lie “under the mattress.” More precisely, she, of course, will not do anything with the savings themselves, but they purchasing power will reduce significantly.
Let's say we have 100,000 rubles.
At the same level of inflation 10%
through 1 year the purchasing power of our capital will decrease to 90,000 rub. That is, in a year we will be able to buy goods and services worth 90 thousand with the same 100,000 rubles. Roughly speaking, our 100 thousand turned into 90 thousand. And in 10 years, purchasing power will drop to 35 thousand.
In general, capital can be compared to a large bag with a hole through which money constantly flows out (inflation). It will not be possible to plug this hole, so you need to make sure that the bag fills faster than it flows out of it.