VCIOM State Duma elections. Moscow pre-election poll: the most important figures for democrats. Who will win the State Duma elections: expert forecasts
A week before the elections, sociological services predict that four parties will overcome the 5% barrier. The voting results may be unexpected, since a sixth of voters still have not made their choice
Monday, September 12th is the last day sociological services may publishpublic opinion measurements before the State Duma elections. The law prohibits the publication of the results of public opinion polls and forecasts of election results within five days before voting day (September 18), as well as on voting day.
Undecided Party
The latest data published by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) and the Levada Center show that four parties overcome the five percent barrier to enter the Duma: United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia. According to the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), only three parties will overcome this barrier: only 4% of those surveyed by FOM are ready to vote for A Just Russia. 1% of respondents each expressed their readiness to vote for all other parties, including Yabloko, the Party of Growth, and PARNAS.
According to FOM, 44% will definitely take part in the elections, another 30% are inclined to be ready to vote (the last survey was conducted on September 3-4, 3,000 respondents were surveyed in 73 constituent entities of the Russian Federation). Data from the Levada Center (the latest published survey from August 26-29 in 48 regions, 1,600 people surveyed) shows less enthusiasm among voters: 20% say they will definitely go to vote, another 28% are inclined to vote.
During the election campaign, the number of those undecided in their choice increased sharply. 14.6% of VTsIOM respondents (the latest data was published on September 4, 1,600 people were surveyed in 42 regions) say that they do not know which party they will vote for. In April, only 8% of respondents could not answer the question about electoral preferences. At FOM, 16% of respondents had difficulty making a choice, compared to 11% in April. These are the highest levels of voter uncertainty since 2011.
Party with the President
The United Russia rating has shown strong fluctuations in the last week. According to FOM, the share of Russians ready to vote for United Russia is 41%. On August 28, FOM reported that 44% of Russians surveyed declared support for the party in power. Since January 2016, the party’s rating in FOM data has decreased by 9%. The number of Russians who certainly do not trust United Russia has increased by 2% (from 12 to 14%) and have a negative assessment of the party’s activities (from 25 to 27%). Rural residents and citizens without income have the most positive attitude towards United Russia members, as follows from the survey data.
According to VTsIOM , 39.3% are ready to vote for the party in power. In mid-August about the desire to cast a vote United Russia said 44% of Russians, in April there were 47.6% of them. A sharp drop in the rating of United Russia in early September Levada Center. The number of citizens ready to vote for the party in power in the State Duma elections decreased in August from 39 to 31% of respondents, sociologists reported.
United Russia's rating is not decreasing; it behaves differently in different regions, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Vyacheslav Volodin (heads the regional group of United Russia members) commented last week at a meeting with political scientists. The trend is “multi-directional,” he assured. “In a number of territories it [the trend] is flat, in a number of territories, including St. Petersburg, it is decreasing, in some territories, including Moscow, it is increasing,” classified Volodin. The decline is occurring in those regions where United Russia did not nominate its candidates in single-mandate constituencies, conceding them to the opposition, a Kremlin official. A week before the Duma elections United Russia decided to launch the latest wave of campaigning, in which they will try to combine the president’s rating with the party’s rating, . And on September 10, a week before the elections, President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister and leader of the United Russia list Dmitry Medvedev together looked at an Orthodox church, took a boat ride on Lake Ilmen and talked with fishermen.
President Vladimir Putin's rating is unshakable - 82% in August (Levada Center, in June-July - 81-82%). VTsIOM shows a decrease in the rating of trust in the president: 50.2% of respondents said they trust, compared to 56% in early August. Support for the prime minister, according to the Levada Center, decreased - from 55% in July to 48% in August. VTsIOM, on the contrary, shows an increase in trust in the prime minister: 9.3% of those who trust in September versus 10.1% in early August.
Stability
The ratings of other parties show lesser dynamics. According to FOM, the number of people wishing to vote for the Liberal Democratic Party remained the same - 11%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation gained 1% during this time (up to 9%), A Just Russia lost 1% (up to 4%). The number of those who decided not to go to the polls decreased from 14 to 13%. VTsIOM data show a slight increase in the rating of communists: to 8.7% from 7.7% (at the beginning of the year there were 10% ready to vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation). The LDPR's rating fell from 12.2 to 10.4%; 5.3% of respondents were ready to vote for A Just Russia (at the beginning of the year there were 5.6%; the peak of sympathy for the Socialist-Revolutionaries came in July, when they were ready to vote for the party give a vote to 7.9% of respondents). The Levada Center showed a stable rating for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, but the latest survey data demonstrated the passage of the five percent barrier for the first time.
The current data from sociologists is closer to reality than the forecasts before the last Duma elections, says political scientist Alexei Makarkin. “Those elections were scandalous, there were many questions about them. Now everything is being done to avoid scandals. However, sociology cannot cover everything - the week before the elections will be decisive,” the expert says. According to Makarkin, the situation can be changed by the fact that a considerable part of the population makes decisions only at polling stations. In addition, sociologists have recorded an increase in the recognition of small parties. “We still have to find out who will be able to attract undecided voters,” the political scientist concludes.
31% of Russians, according to them, did not participate in the last Duma elections, 16% cannot remember whether they voted or not. In general, the electorates of the United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are more likely to repeat their choice of 2011, and most of all those who do not feel the desire to support the party for which they voted before are in the electorate of the SR.
download data
FOMnibus is a representative survey of the population aged 18 years and older. The survey involved 1,500 respondents - residents of 104 urban and rural settlements in 53 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Face-to-face interviews took place at the respondents’ place of residence. The statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.
Do you know, have heard or are hearing for the first time that elections to the State Duma will take place in September of this year?
DATA IN % OF RESPONDENTS
Did you go to the State Duma elections in 2011? And if so, how, what party did you vote for then?
DATA IN % OF GROUPS
Card, one answer
| General population | "United Russia" | Communist Party of the Russian Federation | LDPR | "A Just Russia" | |
| Voted for United Russia | 36 | 57 | 15 | 17 | 24 |
| Voted for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation | 9 | 2 | 51 | 2 | 6 |
| Voted for LDPR | 5 | <1 | 2 | 36 | 4 |
| Voted for “A Just Russia” | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| Voted for "Yabloko" | <1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Voted for “Patriots of Russia” | <1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Voted for "Right Cause" | <1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spoiled the ballot | <1 | <1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Didn't go to the polls | 31 | 27 | 18 | 29 | 29 |
| I find it difficult to answer, I don’t remember | 16 | 13 | 11 | 17 | 16 |
Do you think that in the State Duma elections in September 2016 you will vote the same way as in 2011, or differently?
DATA IN % OF GROUPS
The question was asked to those who went to the State Duma elections of the Russian Federation in 2011 and voted for one of the listed parties, answered 52% of respondents
Why will you vote the same way as in 2011?
DATA IN % OF RESPONDENTS
Open question. The question was asked to those who would vote in the State Duma elections the same way as in 2011, answered 35% of respondents
There is less and less time left before the September elections to the lower house of the Russian parliament. However, this does not mean that the leaders of the race for seats in the State Duma will be able to retain their “seats” that they have occupied during all the disputes, battles and pre-election discussions. The already “traditionally ruling” United Russia has slightly weakened its position: too many voters have become disillusioned with the policies pursued by this party under the leadership of D. Medvedev. Anonymous opinion polls conducted on social networks and forums show a high percentage of support for the communists (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, led by G. Zyuganov and the LDPR (leader - V. Zhirinovsky). Yabloko, a traditionally "left" party, is also in favor, however, its supporters are incomparably smaller. Today, the majority of active supporters of United Russia and skeptics have no doubt who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016. The bets are on United Russia, and losing to it, both according to experts and according to the forecasts of political analysts, is simply unrealistic. the loss of the United Russia Communist Party of the Russian Federation or the Liberal Democratic Party must gain at least another 25-30% of the votes.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - expert opinion
According to most experts, the United Russia party will win the State Duma elections in 2016. Considering that it is headed by the “second helmsman” of the country, Dmitry Medvedev, and also taking into account the powerful financing of the United Russia, it is United Russia that is destined to receive a larger percentage of seats in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Western analysts are predicting mass discontent among Russians over the results of the September 18 vote. In their opinion, the cause of unrest and even protests could be election fraud. At the same time, Westerners argue that it will be easier to rig voter results in the regions than in Moscow and St. Petersburg electoral districts. American experts generally talk about a “new revolution in Russia.” As US political scientists believe, after the newly elected State Duma begins its work, Russians will immediately “not like” its decisions. Russian experts, on the contrary, do not doubt the transparency of the elections in general, admitting discrepancies between the true figures of the voting results and the final ones announced. Wait and see. The current, sixth convocation of the Russian parliament has served its term. Vacations in the Duma begin after the last meeting of all deputies on June 24. After this, in September 2016, on the 18th, a list of new elected representatives of the people will be determined. The composition of the Duma, elected in 2016, will be the seventh in a row. The current sixth composition of the Duma will receive compensation for early termination of work. Deputies who are deprived of their mandates by voting will be deprived of these payments.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - forecast
Since United Russia is currently in the lead, and the top three contenders for seats in the lower house of parliament include both the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, we can talk about not one, but three winners. More than six months ago, forecasts about who would win the elections in 2016 spoke of one thing: United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party (in that order). Following the top three is A Just Russia, which failed to achieve such a rating earlier, in the 2011 elections. Then half of the votes went to United Russia, just over 19% to the communists, and almost 12% to the liberal democrats. This sequence and, accordingly, the seats and number of seats in the Duma may now change. V. Zhirinovsky actively supports the president’s policies and demonstrates his complacent attitude towards United Russia. Even the skirmishes between communists and liberal democrats are no longer so frequent and not so frighteningly extravagant. With such a “liberal”, soft policy, the leader of the LDPR can get more votes for his party and, perhaps, overtake the communists. Across Russian regions, the average percentage of support for United Russia is about 50%. With fourteen parties vying for seats in the Duma, this is certainly a clear lead and one step away from victory on September 18, 2016.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - opinion poll
Today, opinion polls regarding who will win the 2016 State Duma elections are conducted not only by specialists from sociological centers. In particular, a group has been registered on VKontakte, whose members are engaged in active discussions of the upcoming elections on September 18, forecasts, and polls. In particular, on the main page, all registered VK users can take part in a mini-survey. Today, a large percentage of survey participants support the LDPR. Many “root” for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, United Russia and Parnas. It is interesting that the choice of anonymous respondents (not only in VK) differs slightly from the opinion of experts and political scientists. If elections were held now, the LDPR, United Russia, Parnas and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation would definitely get into the Duma (the sequence of opinion poll results was observed).
It is with sadness that I publish the results of our latest survey. We, as promised, did a completely identical Moscow survey.
Each card has three results for your convenience: federal in June, federal in July and Moscow.
And with sadness, because Moscow gives democratic parties 15-20% of the total number of votes that they can generally receive in the country. The result in Moscow is absolutely critical from the point of view of passing any barriers.
Focus of the survey in the study of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth, as well as their leaders.
Look what happens:
Awareness of the upcoming elections in Moscow is good.
The first key difference with the rest of the country: Muscovites do not want to go to the polls. The percentage of “I will definitely go” is much lower, the percentage of “I definitely won’t go” is higher than in Russia.
I doubt that this is due to the particular laziness of Muscovites; most likely, they are simply better informed and feel more keenly that the elections are not real.
The second key difference between Moscow and Russia: the rating of United Russia here is almost two times lower.
However (see above about “sad”) this does not add anything to democratically oriented parties. APPLE - 2%, PARNASUS - 1%.
The Party of Growth does not exist at all. But there are many more “undecided” people. Muscovites don’t want to vote for EdRo, and they don’t know who to vote for.
You can try to throw out those who are undecided and calculate party ratings among those who will definitely go to vote and have made their choice. I repeat that this can be done with a very big stretch, because the votes of those who are undecided will not necessarily be distributed in the same way as the votes of those who know who they will vote for. But if you do this, then the pre-election situation looks like this:
While YABLOKO has a chance of gaining only 5% in Moscow, PARNAS - 2%. This means results of around two and one percent for the entire country.
Scroll through the slides to see the personal ratings of the leaders of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth. In general, the picture is similar in Moscow and Russia. We see that Muscovites are somewhat more informed about democratic politicians, they recognize them better - but this awareness increases not only the rating, but also the anti-rating (it’s clear here - television works). This is especially noticeable in Mikhail Kasyanov’s slide.
What do I want to say about the survey results? Or rather, what I want to address to PARNAS and YABLOKO, the parties on whose side my sympathies are:
- Election campaign, my friends. Where is she? There is less than a month before the elections, and I don’t see the SMALLEST trace of your election campaigns. I see some single-mandate candidates (and they, as befits single-mandate candidates, do their best to hide their party affiliation), but I don’t see your party campaigns.
Nothing will work like that. You probably think: in Moscow they don’t like United Russia, so people will automatically vote for us. Forget it. It doesn't work that way, and you've seen it yourself many times. In 2003, in 2007, in 2011. We must somehow be present in the political field. We all expect this from you.
26 days before voting. This is already very difficult, but you can still try and make a breakthrough. Involve party activists and volunteers. Take to the streets. Make important statements. That is, work as the party should do a month before the elections.
In general, I note that everything is very strange. Deputies are being elected for the next 5 years, but there is almost no sign of the elections on the streets. Everything is clear to me with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Socialist Republic, but what about the Democrats?
Elections will become elections when we gain access to real participants.
PS
FBK thanks all the volunteers who help us with surveys. Thanks to you, we have sociology we can trust.
Every day that Russia approaches the elections on September 18, new details are emerging in the picture that clarifies the situation about who will win the State Duma elections in 2016. If earlier the forecast for the outcome of the vote was clear ─ United Russia and its leaders are again at the helm ─, then today the number of helmsmen in state power may change. According to anonymous opinion polls, young people and middle-aged people more often began to give preference to the LDPR. Older people traditionally support the Communist Party. The opposition is finding fewer and fewer sympathizers. The Parnassus party is gaining popularity every week, while the leader and majority party United Russia has lost part of the electorate due to the decline in the popularity of its leader Dmitry Medvedev. According to experts, the majority of Duma seats will, of course, go to United Russia, but for the first time their percentage will be reduced. Due to changes in the 2016 election procedure and voting for half of the candidates in single-member districts (in fact, they will vote for the individual), the final result of the September 18 elections may be a surprise to everyone.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ expert opinion
Today, the balance of power in the Russian political arena suggests that the State Duma, elected on September 18, 2016, will be “three-party.” “A Just Russia”, quite a bit behind the top three leaders of United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, is constantly balancing on the threshold of the five percent barrier. Moreover, with the growing popularity of the liberal democratic party, the balance was slightly upset. “A Just Russia” has lost a share of the percentage of voters who support it. Opposition parties, according to experts and political scientists, are generally likely to enter the State Duma only thanks to deputies elected in single-mandate constituencies. Today, outsider parties should think about how to most effectively campaign for their nominees in constituencies. Given high support for their candidates, each minority party's faction will increase. Thus, they will also be able to influence the outcome of further votes in the Duma and whether laws and amendments to them will be banned. Exparts believe that United Russia will win the State Duma elections in 2016 again. The “silver” winner of the race may change: the LDPR and its permanent leader Vladimir Volfovich Zhirinovsky are doing everything possible to win. Gennady Andreevich Zyuganov, who has also headed his party (the Communist Party of the Russian Federation) for many years, provides his comrades with support. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and United Russia are the top three.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ forecast
You don’t need to be an experienced political scientist to make a forecast about the victory of parties in the State Duma elections. In 2016, United Russia is leading by a large margin from their rivals and future comrades and colleagues. However, it is difficult to make a forecast regarding the second and third places in the lower house of the Russian parliament until September. Even in winter, the communists (CPRF) followed the United Russia. Today the LDPR has surpassed them in this segment of the distance before the elections. Deputies elected to the State Duma of the seventh convocation will have a difficult time. The previous composition of the Duma began its work in a more favorable political and economic situation both in the country and in the world as a whole. There has not yet been a Ukrainian Maidan, which entailed a quick decision by the Crimeans to return to Russia. There was no civil war yet in Ukraine. Russia was neither under economic sanctions nor under political pressure. Now the deputies elected by the people will have a more difficult time than all the compositions of the State Duma that have ever been elected. The country needs to be pulled out of the economic crisis. You will have to learn to ignore political games. Deputies must become more loyal and wiser. Most likely, the situation in the world and in Russia will be greatly influenced by the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. In the United States, a new, 45th head of state will appear in November, and this person will be extraordinary. No matter who Russia and the Duma deputies have to deal with - the woman wife of the country’s ex-president or a billionaire clearly interested in growing personal popularity, the working conditions of the people’s elected representatives will be non-standard.
Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 ─ opinion poll
While Western political scientists are predicting a new revolution in Russia in 2017, sociologists are conducting independent surveys of the population. They ask people on the streets who they are going to vote for on September 18th. According to updated data from sociological surveys conducted in June 2016, 44% of Russian citizens decided to definitely vote in the 2016 elections. Some of them are still hesitating, because they are not sure that their decision can affect the outcome of the election campaign. At the same time, United Russia has already lost 7-8% in the rating, and does not feel so confident as a winner. The initially planned holidays for deputies of the Duma of the 6th convocation have been cancelled: some of the old people's deputies will again claim the right to work in the lower house of the Russian parliament.
Of course, the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 in any, even greatly changed, alignment of political forces has already been decided: United Russia will win the majority. V. Zhirinovsky and the LDPR party, by supporting United Russia, actually add “percentage of popularity” to themselves. Thus, according to the latest opinion polls, expert opinions and forecasts, only three parties, United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, will enter the Duma.